The Big Kahuna Top Dog at my company came to speak on Tuesday.  He is always insightful and interesting, but in this housing market I was especially interested in hearing his thoughts.

First, housing buys are absolutely the best they’ve every been.  In 1981 when he opened the company, interest rates were 16-17 percent.  Right now we have a lot of inventory and low rates.  One agent said she received a quote on Monday for 5 percent.  Today’s news is all about the Treasury intervening with a plan to lower rates to qualified buyers to 4.5 percent.  That’s nothing short of phenomenal.

We are also seeing far fewer agents and fewer companies, but more demand for service.  Today’s buyer is often more knowledgeable about a piece of property than their agent because they’ve studied it online.

Finally, The Big Man on Campus said we ARE AT THE BOTTOM of the housing market.  The question is, how long and deep is the trough?  Is it a sharp V-shape or is it more like a bathtub? 

What is needed to get real estate back on track is restoring consumer confidence.  We are thinking by the second quarter of 2009 we’ll start to see some sunshine and by the end of the year, things will be back to "normal."  It’s important to note that 2004 and 2005 were not "normal."  Those were boom years that were out of control.  Normal will be defined as closer to what we had from 2000 to 2002.

I plan to be here to see normal again.  How about you?